Cost is backed out of the raise. D2D ads are running at a 250% return, so cost is raise divided by 2.5. Text rentals are running at 125%, so cost is raise divided by 1.25. That makes every dollar of D2D worth about 60 cents net and every dollar of text worth about 20 cents net.
Scenarios are daily run rates held flat from Sept 23 through Dec 31 (100 days), added on top of what has already come in. Rates come from full days only, Sept 13–21; Sept 22 is a partial day in the export and is counted as actual raise but not used to set a rate. Each rate is a real window from the launch data, not a guess: the window behind each scenario is listed on the channel cards.
What isn’t modeled: a year-end or end-of-quarter surge, changes in ad budget or text volume, recurring gifts that start paying out in later months, and any drift in return as spend scales. With nine days of data, treat the spread between low and high as the honest range.